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WTI (Dec) $102.00 ▼ 0.76% · NG (Dec) $2.952 ▼ 2.64% · RIGS 603 — · S&P 7,720.39 ▼ 0.30% · XOP $199.52 ▼ 0.42% October 29 close · WTI = NYMEX Dec 2026 · Gas = Henry Hub Dec 2026 (Nov expired Oct. 28) · Rigs = Baker Hughes (week ending October 23, 2026) |
THE NUMBER 13x What GE Vernova is paying for Trench’s forecast 2028 adjusted EBITDA, before synergies. | | |
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| NEW | SUNYA RESEARCH · AI IN OIL & GAS |
Plenty of oil companies are using AI. Few can tell you what it’s worth.We went through 200 AI projects at 96 oil and gas companies. Most are up and running. Only 48 come with a number, and those numbers don’t measure the same thing. |
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TODAY’S MENU | | 01 | $9B — GE Vernova buys Trench Group, one of its own suppliers | | 02 | 550,000 b/d — The Houthis claim a missile hit on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura | | 03 | 3 mtpa / 20 years — QatarEnergy buys LNG from Woodside’s Louisiana project | | 04 | $5.1B — DOE closes Alliant’s loans at Treasuries plus 37.5 bp | | 05 | ~$4B — EIG and Acwa form Plenum Power to buy and build U.S. plants | | 06 | $16.3B — Shell’s free cash flow funds a bigger $5 billion buyback |
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LEAD STORY | • Triton sells Trench, which makes bushings, instrument transformers and coils for 800-plus utilities and hyperscalers at 11 sites. GE Vernova pays half in cash, half in debt. • The price is 13x Trench’s forecast 2028 EBITDA on $1.9 billion of revenue at ~36% margins. Backlog and frameworks total ~$5 billion. Close is due late 2027, after regulatory approvals. |
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THE HEADLINES | OIL • Saudi forces say they intercepted three missiles and four drones Tuesday and haven’t confirmed damage. Satellites picked up a fire at the export terminal; a source told Bloomberg it’s out. • December WTI settled up 2.9% Wednesday at $102.78. The Houthis also went after Riyadh’s airport and the East-West Pipeline this week. We ran Aramco clearing its Dhahran HQ Oct. 22. | LNG • Woodside sells FOB from its own share, starting with Train 2 and reaching 3 mtpa when Train 3 starts. The 16.5 mtpa, three-train project is under construction and targets first LNG in 2029. • No price was given. Woodside says it builds on its Uniper deal. It’s QatarEnergy’s second U.S. supply deal this month. We ran its 4 mtpa Cheniere purchase Oct. 22. | POWER • Interstate Power and Light can draw up to $3.5 billion and Wisconsin Power and Light $1.63 billion. Draws cover up to 80% of eligible project costs; all of it matures in May 2056. • DOE says the loans back 2.6 GW-plus of new or upgraded capacity, including gas plants and storage, and save customers $1 billion-plus. Draws still need DOE’s environmental review. | POWER • The agreements are signed. The ~$4 billion of initial equity is a target, and none has been raised yet. Acwa builds and runs the gas, renewable and storage plants; EIG brings capital. • EIG’s Blair Thomas says AI demand and a renewables slump from rules, costs and rates make this the time to get in. No first deal, portfolio or ownership split was disclosed. | OIL • Adjusted earnings doubled from a year ago to $10.8 billion. Operating cash flow of $21 billion included $3.4 billion of derivative inflows. Selling Jiffy Lube and Na Kika added $2.7 billion. • Net debt fell to $39.7 billion from $41.8 billion despite $6.6 billion of new leases and ARC’s debt. The buyback is up from $4.2 billion and runs to fourth-quarter results. |
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