February 24, 2026
WTI$65.63▼1.03%│NG$2.915▼2.35%│RIGS551—0│S&P6,890▲0.78%│XOP$149.56▲0.05%
Feb 24 close · Gas = Henry Hub Mar · Rigs = Baker Hughes (Feb 20)
7,800 MW
Net-new generation + capacity Google has contracted for the Texas grid
Net-new generation + capacity Google has contracted for the Texas grid
The Meme
Today's Menu
Google goes “power-first” in Texas (AES, 7.8 GW) and Minnesota (Xcel, 1.9 GW of clean energy)
AMD inks a $100B+ AI chip deal with Meta tied to 6 GW of buildout
Amazon drops $12B on Louisiana data center campuses (+ $400M water pledge)
Baker Hughes wins 1.21 GW generator order for Boom Supersonic’s AI data center power build
Constellation + NRG beat Q4 estimates; both adding data center generation capacity
Diamondback shareholder letter: flat plan, $2B buybacks, WAHA de-bottleneck strategy
WaterBridge opens season for +500 kbpd produced-water expansion
Infinity closes $1.2B Utica deal backed by Quantum + Carnelian
Capital markets: PPL equity units, CenterPoint + Itron converts
Lead Story
Co-located generation with AES in Texas. 1,900 MW of new clean energy with Xcel in Minnesota. $40B earmarked for Texas through 2027.
• Texas: New data center in Wilbarger County with AES under 20-year PPAs. AES builds, owns, and operates co-located generation. Google has contracted >7,800 MW of net-new capacity for the TX grid. Air-cooled design eliminates operational water use. $30M local Energy Impact Fund.
• Minnesota: First MN data center (Pine Island) with Xcel Energy. Google pays 100% of electric service costs. Brings 1,400 MW wind + 200 MW solar + 300 MW / 30 GWh Form Energy iron-air battery (largest by GWh globally). $50M into Xcel’s Capacity*Connect.
• Context: AES has now signed agreements for nearly 12 GW with data center customers (9 GW direct hyperscaler PPAs). MN deal still requires PUC review.
The Headlines
AI + Power
• Five-year deal for AMD Instinct GPUs (MI450) tied to Meta’s ~6 GW buildout. First 1 GW deployment via Helios rack-scale architecture in 2H 2026. AMD issues Meta a warrant to buy 160M shares at $0.01, vesting in tranches as GW milestones are hit.
• Lisa Su says deal worth “double-digit billions per GW”; full warrant = ~10% of AMD, but final tranche requires AMD stock to hit $600 (closed ~$197 Monday).
• Second hyperscaler (after OpenAI) to sign a mega chip deal with AMD. The warrant structure = strategic partnership, not just procurement.
• $12B capex; 540 full-time DC jobs + 1,710 additional positions supported; up to $400M pledged for local water infrastructure.
• Context: Amazon’s 2026 capex budget cited at $200B, up from $131B in 2025 (Reuters).
Onsite Power
• Reload adds a multi-GW pipeline of powered land + data center campuses with on-site power generation.
• Signed agreement for a multi-hundred-MW on-site energy system for a leading hyperscale customer. Backed by EQT.
• 25 BRUSH DAX 7 generators pairing with Boom’s 42 MW gas turbines for onsite AI power. Supports Boom’s 1.21 GW commitment to Crusoe. Deliveries mid-2026 through 2028.
• A supersonic aviation company is now a meaningful player in stationary gas turbines for data centers. The aperture keeps widening.
Power Earnings
• Adjusted EPS $2.30 vs $2.23 consensus; revenue $6.07B. Nuclear fleet: 45,459 GWh. Closed $16.4B Calpine acquisition in January.
• New deal with CyrusOne to serve a data center at Freestone Energy Center (TX) — adds to nuclear agreements with Meta (IL) and Microsoft (PA restart).
• Adjusted Q4 EPS $1.04 vs $0.96 estimate. Three new TX generation projects totaling 1.5 GW for data center demand.
• Closed $12B acquisition of LS Power’s generation assets in January.
Water / Midstream
• Open season Feb 23 – Apr 20. Adds up to 500,000 bpd on top of 500,000 bpd initial phase. Route: Eddy + Lea Counties, NM to out-of-basin pore space (LandBridge affiliate).
• WaterBridge sees a path to 1 Mbpd on a single system — significant Delaware Basin infrastructure.
Deals
• $1.2B from Antero Resources + Antero Midstream; $350M equity from Quantum and Carnelian. Package: ~71k net acres (dry gas Ohio Utica), 110+ long-lateral locations, 141 mi gathering / 600 MMcf/d.
• Quantum + Carnelian invested via Series A Convertible Preferred at $21.39/share (30% premium); 8% coupon rising to 12% after Year 5; ~20.5% voting power as-converted.
• Targets ≥$25M synergies; leverage ≤1.0x by YE 2026; two-rig program.
E&P / Permian
• 2026: flat activity; 500–510 MBO/d guide on $3.6–$3.9B capex. Raised dividend to $1.05/qtr; repurchased ~5% of shares ($2.0B) in 2025. Reinvestment ratio 39%.
• WAHA: ~70% of gas on WAHA today (~350k MMBtu/d committed); expects ~800k MMBtu/d as new pipes come online. LOE rising to $5.90–$6.40/BOE (higher disposal + power costs).
• Permian constraints playbook: flat production, rising costs, aggressive buybacks over growth.
Quick Hits
Almost Headlines
Capital Markets
The Reading List
Sunya Stories
New Latest Episode
Energy Investing with Dan Pickering
Founder of Pickering Energy Partners on energy markets, capital allocation, and the road ahead.
Listen →In Case You Missed It
Know someone who should be reading this?
Forward this email. It takes 2 seconds. They'll thank you.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. This newsletter is for education + entertainment — not a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. Do your own research and make your own calls (and talk to a pro when it matters).