THE NUMBER

35

LNG cargoes Edison has now lost to Qatar’s force majeure. It has replaced 23, mostly with U.S. supply.

TODAY’S MENU

LEAD STORY

$518B / ~80% — Anthropic’s IPO prospectus shows compute commitments it mostly can’t cancel

•   Minimums run $111.1 billion with Google, $110 billion with Amazon and $31.4 billion with Microsoft over seven to 10 years. Broadcom-linked leases add $161.2 billion.

•   About 80% is payable regardless of usage. Up to $84.5 billion of xAI capacity through 2029 is largely cancelable on 90 days’ notice. The filing is confidential; Reuters saw it.

THE HEADLINES

LNG

+14 Mtpa / C$33B — LNG Canada takes FID on Phase 2 and doubles Kitimat

•   Two trains take Kitimat from 14 to 28 Mtpa, with a storage tank, a loading berth and five Coastal GasLink compressor stations. Operations start in the early 2030s.

•   Ottawa pegs it at C$33 billion. Shell (40%) gets nearly 6 Mtpa and expects double-digit returns. Phase 1 shipped its first cargo in June 2025. We flagged the FID Sept. 17.

NUCLEAR

300 MW / 14 months — NRC issues the first U.S. construction permit for a commercial SMR

•   TVA can build a GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 at Clinch River, Tennessee, after a 14-month review. It still needs a separate operating license before loading fuel.

•   No cost or construction start. TVA is still negotiating cost-sharing and says Valley ratepayers should not carry first-of-a-kind costs. Its early site permit dates to 2019.

UPSTREAM

$7B / 90 Mbbl/d — GeoPark lays out its Bare redevelopment

•   Bare goes from 11,000 bbl/d to ~90,000 bbl/d by 2038 in four phases. Up to 1,100 existing wells come back first; ~80 new horizontals could follow later.

•   GeoPark has ~$700 million of liquidity and committed financing, $310 million of it cash, and takes over operations in December. We ran the Bare entry Sept. 3.

CRUDE

40 MMbbl / 500 Mbbl — DOE reoffers the last SPR tranche after June drew almost no takers

•   The loan finishes the U.S. share of 172 MMbbl pledged to the IEA’s 400 MMbbl release. Bids are due Oct. 6; repayment carries premiums up to 24%, into late 2028.

•   June’s offer of the same 40 MMbbl drew ~500,000 bbl. The SPR sits below 284 MMbbl, lowest since 1982; a full draw would dip under the 252.4 MMbbl routine-sale floor.

POWER

1 GW / multi-year — EquipmentShare and Cummins build a rental fleet of gas gensets

•   EquipmentShare commits to Cummins’ C1400N6C lean-burn gas gensets, 1,400–1,750 kVA each, rented for temporary power, microgrids and critical sites.

•   The 1 GW is expected fleet growth over a multi-year deal, not contracted load. No customers or price disclosed. It claims 50–80% savings versus traditional mobile power.

QUICK HITS

CRUDE

$89.38 / 16.33 MMbbl/d — WTI drops $3.22 as Yanbu loads again

Saudi Arabia is loading at Yanbu again after restarting the East-West line. Kpler puts September Middle East crude exports at 16.33 MMbbl/d, a wartime high. Brent fell $2.69.

LNG

Early December / 18 cargoes — Qatar extends force majeure as Hormuz stays shut

Edison gets no Qatari LNG until early December after six more cancellations; some Asian buyers heard November. Qatar shipped 18 cargoes through August, against 509 last year.

LNG

0.8 Mtpa / 22 years — Petrobras adds a Cheniere contract to September’s Sempra deal

The FOB deal adds to Petrobras’s 0.8 Mtpa, 20-year Port Arthur contract with Sempra, which we ran Sept. 15. Pricing, source plant and start date weren’t disclosed.

SOLAR

715 MWp / no price — Exus buys four ibV solar projects in Louisiana and Wisconsin

The portfolio is 405 MWp across two Louisiana projects and 310 MWp in Wisconsin, all in MISO. Exus expects hyperscaler or utility offtake within four to six weeks.

ALMOST HEADLINES

DATA CENTERS  $1B / six affiliates — Samsung invests in KKR’s Helix, with Samsung Electronics putting in half

POWER  ~2 GW / five sites — AB Energy USA lines up Jenbacher-based gas gensets for data centers in Texas and Oklahoma

POWER  283 MW / no PPA yet — Atlas Energy Solutions buys more Caterpillar gensets, reimbursed by an unnamed frontier AI lab

DATA CENTERS  531 MW of wind — Crusoe confirms it is developing Google’s Armstrong County, Texas campus, wired to Serena’s Goodnight wind farms

DATA CENTERS  $1.07B / SOFR+175 — Hut 8 closes a four-year revolver with an equal-size letter-of-credit sublimit

MINERALS  $111.8M / 11,810 NRA — WhiteHawk closes its San Jacinto gas-minerals buy and lifts its borrowing base to $175M

EQUIPMENT  €810M EV / ~3.2x sales — Eaton buys Italian medium-voltage switchgear maker COL Group from Oaktree

MIDSTREAM  $255M / ~$50M EBITDA — Jefferson buys USD Group’s Port Arthur crude terminal and half of the Hardisty DRU

POWER  $33B+ — Lawmakers including Sen. Warren ask FERC to reject the GIP and EQT takeover of AES

LNG  Reported — ~$54B — Korea’s $350B package could fund Alaska LNG next, after the Texas gas plant we ran Sept. 22

THE READING LIST

REUTERS

Alternative capital powers America’s next wave of LNG and pipeline projects

LATITUDE MEDIA

Does the market finally have an opening for solid-state transformers?

SEMAFOR

Enough about the data centers already

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