| March 12, 2026 | |
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| WTI (Apr) $95.70 ▲9.7% · NG (Apr) $3.233 ▲0.75% · RIGS 551 ▲1 w/w · S&P 6,672.58 ▼1.52% · XOP $166.71 ▲1.23% | |
| Mar 12 close · Gas = Henry Hub Apr 2026 · Rigs = Baker Hughes (week-ending Mar 6, 2026) |
| 8 |
| Million barrels per day of global oil supply knocked offline by the Middle East conflict, according to the IEA — nearly 8% of world demand and the largest disruption on record. |
| Today’s Menu | |||||||
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| Lead Story |
| Shell pushes Qatar LNG force majeure downstream — 6.8 mtpa now in contract limbo |
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The Qatar outage just moved from producer-level disruption to buyer-level contract fallout. |
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• Shell declared force majeure to customers on LNG cargoes it buys from QatarEnergy and resells globally. Analysts estimate Shell lifts 6.8 mtpa of Qatari LNG; TotalEnergies lifts 5.2 mtpa but has not declared FM to its own buyers. March deliveries should still flow; April is the first real risk window. |
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• Qatar’s energy minister said even if the conflict stopped immediately, normalization could take weeks to months. The story is now contract performance and credit exposure, not just lost nameplate volume. |
| The Headlines |
| Power & Utilities |
| RWE steers €17B to the U.S. — targets 22 GW and a 5 GW gas pipeline |
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• RWE plans €35 billion of net investment from 2026 to 2031, with €17 billion going to the U.S. across wind, solar, battery storage, and flexible generation. Installed U.S. capacity is set to rise from 13 GW to 22 GW by 2031. |
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• Reuters added that RWE is developing a 5 GW U.S. gas-fired pipeline targeting Texas and Midwestern states, with more than 3 GW expected by 2035. CEO Markus Krebber: build whatever you can. |
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| Regulated Utilities |
| Duke locks $2.3B in Carolinas merger savings — targets Jan. 1, 2027 close |
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• Duke reached settlements in both North and South Carolina on the combination of Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress, with major C&I intervenors signing on. Updated modeling projects roughly $2.3 billion of savings from 2027 to 2040. |
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• One key planning lever: elimination of 200 MW of battery storage from the long-range plan while maintaining reliability. FERC approved the deal January 30; state orders expected Q2 2026. |
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| Thermal / Power |
| ArcLight buys InfraBridge’s 50% stake in a 5.4 GW thermal fleet — 11 assets across North America |
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• ArcLight agreed to acquire InfraBridge’s 50% stake in Invenergy AMPCI Thermal Power, a diversified 5.4 GW thermal portfolio spanning 11 assets across North America. Invenergy keeps its ownership and operating role. |
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• Terms were not disclosed. Closing is expected in 2H 2026. ArcLight continues to build scale in dispatchable power at a time when thermal assets are repricing on load growth. |
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| Renewables & Storage |
| Cypress Creek buys 2.45 GW Arkansas solar mega-project from Swift Current — >$4.5B total cost |
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• Steel River combines 2,450 MWdc of solar with 2,900 MWh of battery storage across three equal phases, all expected in service by 2029. Swift Current said it signed a 20-year PPA with an unnamed tech company for the first two phases. |
| Quick Hits | |||||||
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| Capital Markets Corner |
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~$2.5B of upstream equity priced this week. |
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FANG $1.9B secondary • BKV $262M primary + secondary • NOG $200M primary • DEC $108M EIG exit |
| The Reading List | |||
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| Sunya Stories | |
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| Full Archive on Spotify → |
| In Case You Missed It | |||
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Disclaimer: Not financial advice. This newsletter is for education + entertainment — not a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. Do your own research and make your own calls (and talk to a pro when it matters).