| March 3, 2026 | |
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| WTI $74.56 ▲4.70% · NG $3.054 ▲3.18% · RIGS 550 —1 · S&P 6,816.63 ▼0.94% · XOP $158.99 ▼0.36% | |
| Mar 3 close · Gas = Henry Hub Apr · Rigs = Baker Hughes (Feb 27) |
| $33.4B |
| EV OF THE GIP + EQT TAKE-PRIVATE OF AES — LARGEST POWER-SECTOR BUYOUT OF THE CYCLE |
The Meme
Today’s Menu
$33.4B EV: BlackRock’s GIP + EQT agreed to take AES private at $15.00/share cash
~20% chokepoint: Iran declared Hormuz closed; Brent touched $85.12 intraday
€500M / 789 MW: TotalEnergies sold 50% of an 11-site German BESS portfolio to AllianzGI (joint construction investment)
$325 / $175: PJM filed a capacity price collar + fast-track interconnect lane for ≥250 MW builds
$4B EV: Equinix + CPP Investments acquire atNorth from Partners Group; ~1 GW secured power
$110B / $730B: OpenAI raises largest AI round ever — SoftBank, NVIDIA, Amazon lead; Stargate buildout accelerates
$950M: FirstEnergy Transmission awarded PJM reliability and load-growth grid upgrades in OH/PA
0.5 mtpa / 5 years: Venture Global signed a mid-term LNG SPA with Trafigura starting 2026
Lead Story
Private capital wants scale platforms that can feed the AI load cycle without living quarter-to-quarter.
BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT Infrastructure VI are leading a consortium — with CalPERS and Qatar Investment Authority co-underwriting — to acquire AES for $15.00/share all-cash, valuing the company at $10.7B equity and $33.4B enterprise value (~$22.7B net debt assumed). The board approved unanimously; close is targeted late 2026 / early 2027, subject to shareholder vote, regulatory approvals, and customary conditions. AES cancelled its Q4 earnings call; it will file its 10-K instead.
• AES operates across 15 countries with 11.8 GW of signed agreements to supply power to major tech firms — positioning it as one of the largest clean energy suppliers to hyperscalers globally. The pitch: accelerate AES as a “clean energy platform across the Americas” with more balance-sheet freedom to fund generation, storage, and customer contracting without quarterly earnings pressure.
• AES shares fell ~18% on announcement to ~$14.30 — below the $15 offer — signaling the market wanted a higher bid. The stock’s discount to the offer price is unusual for a definitive agreement and suggests investors see regulatory or execution risk.
• Signal: This is the largest power-sector take-private of the current cycle and the clearest signal yet that infrastructure funds are underwriting AI load growth as a multi-year capex supercycle. Read-through to every utility and IPP board: if you have a development pipeline and hyperscaler contracts, private capital will price that optionality higher than the public market will.
The Headlines
Geopolitics / Commodities
• IRGC confirmed the Strait of Hormuz closed to foreign vessels on March 2 — the waterway handles ~20% of global seaborne oil and ~20% of LNG trade. Tanker traffic dropped ~70% within hours, then went to effectively zero. At least 3 tankers struck; Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and MSC suspended transits; P&I insurers pulled war-risk coverage effective March 5.
• Brent traded to $85.12 (19-month high); WTI surged intraday before settling ~$74.56. European natural gas surged ~50% and Asian LNG jumped ~40% after QatarEnergy halted production following drone strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities. Analysts floating $100–$150 Brent if disruptions persist. OPEC+ pledged +206 kbpd — a fraction of the ~15–20 MMbpd normally transiting Hormuz.
Storage / Renewables
• AllianzGI acquiring 50% of 11 utility-scale battery projects in Germany. Portfolio: 789 MW / 1,628 MWh; all operational by 2028. Joint construction investment: €500M (~$581M); ~70% debt-financed.
• Projects developed by Kyon Energy (TotalEnergies sub, acquired 2024); most sites use batteries from Saft (also TotalEnergies sub). AllianzGI’s first direct equity into a utility-scale battery portfolio. TotalEnergies stays on as operator — consistent with its build-sell down-recycle capital playbook.
Grid / Regulation
• PJM asked FERC to extend a “price collar” for the 2028/29 and 2029/30 delivery-year auctions: ~$325/MW-day cap and ~$175/MW-day floor. Without the change, next auction cap would be ~$550/MW-day; next base residual auction starts June 30.
• Expedited Interconnection Track (EIT): up to 10 projects/year, minimum 250 MW UCAP, with state siting authority support and in-service commitment within 3 years. Deposits: $500k study + $15,000/MW readiness. Developers cover 100% of required network upgrades.
Data Centers / Infrastructure
• CPP Investments takes ~60% controlling stake ($1.6B invested); Equinix holds ~40%. Total financing package: $4.2B, underwritten by European and Canadian lenders. Immediately accretive to Equinix AFFO per share.
• atNorth footprint: 8 operational data centers across Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Power position: ~800 MW active pipeline over 5 years + 1 GW of secured power. Partners Group disclosed 14x growth in contracted EBITDA since its 2022 acquisition.
AI + Power
• Largest AI funding round in history. Includes a multi-year Amazon strategic partnership and next-gen inference compute deal with NVIDIA. ChatGPT now at 900M+ weekly active users and 50M+ paid subscribers.
• Infrastructure implications are the energy story: OpenAI’s Stargate buildout targets multi-GW campuses across the US. SB Energy (SoftBank sub) is developing the 1.2 GW Milam County, TX site with a 15 GW solar + 12 GWh storage pipeline behind it. Capital is no longer the constraint — grid interconnection is.
Quick Hits
JAPEX completes $1.26B acquisition of Verdad Resources’ DJ Basin assets (~101k net acres CO/WY) E&P / M&A
FirstEnergy Transmission awarded $950M in PJM reliability and load-growth grid upgrades across OH/PA Grid / T&D
Plug signs $132.5M agreement with Stream Data Centers — first step in $275M asset monetization Hydrogen / Data Centers
NHOA Energy wins two MACSE battery awards in Italy — 90 MW / ~600 MWh across Campania and Sardinia Storage
Almost Headlines
The Reading List
FT How will strikes on Iran affect global energy flows? — on chokepoints, reroutes, and who gets squeezed first
FT Iran war will test the vulnerability of oil markets — on spare capacity, inventories, and tail-risk pricing
Axios Emissions will keep falling despite Trump’s climate rollback — on structural drivers vs. policy headwinds
Sunya Stories
New Latest Episode
Energy Investing with Dan Pickering
Founder of Pickering Energy Partners on energy markets, capital allocation, and the road ahead.
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Disclaimer: Not financial advice. This newsletter is for education + entertainment — not a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. Do your own research and make your own calls (and talk to a pro when it matters).