February 26, 2026
WTI$65.21▼0.32%│NG$2.787▼2.82%│RIGS551—0│S&P6,908.86▼0.54%│XOP$149.79▲0.94%
Feb 26 close · WTI = NYMEX Apr · Gas = Henry Hub Apr · Rigs = Baker Hughes (Feb 20)
$47.5B
Oncor just dropped a $47.5B Texas wires plan — and says the load queue includes ~255 GW of data centers
Oncor just dropped a $47.5B Texas wires plan — and says the load queue includes ~255 GW of data centers
The Meme
Today’s Menu
Oncor: $47.5B 2026–2030 base cap plan; 650 LC&I requests incl. ~255 GW from data centers
Sempra raises 5-year capex plan +16% to ~$65B (plus $9B incremental pipeline)
Google/Xcel: 1.9 GW clean buildout in MN incl. Form Energy’s 300 MW / 30 GWh iron-air battery
Cheniere/CPC Taiwan: new LNG SPA up to 1.2 mtpa (2026–2050)
Engie buys UK Power Networks: £10.5B equity / £15.8B EV; 8.5M customers, 192,000 km network
Enel buys 830 MW U.S. wind + solar from Excelsior; ~$1B consideration, ~$145M/yr EBITDA uplift
Vistra: guides $6.8B–$7.6B 2026 “core profit”; cites hyperscale-driven demand
Quick hits: Southern’s $26.54B DOE loan; Hunt buys Fort Duncan BESS; Technip wins Qatar NFW EPCC
Grid / T&D
When the queue is measured in gigawatts, the capex plan is measured in tens of billions
Oncor’s new five-year base capital plan lands at $47.5B (2026–2030), up $11.4B from the prior base plan. The driver: a Texas interconnection queue that now includes roughly 255 GW of data center load requests, plus >18 GW from other industrial sectors across 650 active large customer requests.
• Queue detail: 562 active generation transmission POI requests (48% storage / 40% solar / 8% wind / 4% gas). ~$3.5B in customer collateral held as of Feb 25, 2026.
• Beyond the base plan: ~$10B of incremental capital opportunities identified outside the base plan, including ERCOT’s 765-kV STEP transmission project.
The Headlines
Grid / T&D
• Company-record $65B five-year plan (2026–2030), up 17% from last year’s $56B plan. 95% allocated to utility investments; Oncor’s Texas capex = $47.5B of the total. Rate base projected from $57B to $97B by 2030 (11% CAGR).
• Also flagged ~$9B of “potential incremental” capex through 2030, majority Oncor. 2026 adj. EPS guide: $4.80–$5.30; 2030 outlook: $6.70–$7.50. Regulated wires are quietly becoming the cleanest “AI trade” in public markets.
AI + Power
• Xcel will serve Google’s Pine Island, MN data center while adding 1,900 MW of clean energy: 1,400 MW wind, 200 MW solar, and 300 MW long-duration storage.
• Storage centerpiece: Form Energy’s 300 MW / 30 GWh iron-air system — a 100-hour battery, largest by GWh announced globally. Google pays all costs + $50M toward Xcel’s Capacity*Connect program. Hyperscaler procurement is moving from “more renewables” to “firm the renewables.”
Power Earnings
• 2026 Ongoing Ops Adjusted EBITDA guide: $6.8B–$7.6B, up from 2025’s $5.91B actual. Q4 adj. core profit $1.74B vs $1.68B estimate; Q4 net income $233M vs $490M YoY (unrealized hedge losses).
• Multi-decade PPAs with AWS and Meta anchor nuclear portfolio. Planned Cogentrix acquisition (~5,500 MW gas) expands dispatchable fleet. Merchant gen is back in the “growth” conversation.
LNG / Gas
• CPC agreed to purchase up to 1.2 mtpa (delivered) from 2026–2050; pricing is Henry Hub–indexed + fixed fee. In addition to CPC’s existing ~2 mtpa contract signed in 2018.
• Long-dated LNG contracting keeps creeping back — and Asia is still the marginal buyer. Cheniere now has ~52 mtpa in operation + >9 mtpa under construction.
Grid / T&D
• Deal: £10.5B equity / £15.8B EV (~1.5× RAV, ~10× 2027E EBITDA). Seller: CK Infrastructure (Hong Kong). Close expected mid-2026.
• Asset: 192,000 km distribution network serving 8.5M customers across London, SE and East England; 71 TWh delivered annually. UK becomes Engie’s No. 2 market behind France.
• Financing: ~€5B debt + hybrid issuance, €4B disposal program by 2028, up to €3B equity via accelerated book build. Net debt rises €13B–€15B. Jefferies calls it “transformational.”
Renewables
• Portfolio: 830 MW operating wind and solar; expected output ~2.1 TWh/yr. Consideration ~$1B (EV ~$1.3B). Financed from operating cash flow. Close targeted Q3 2026.
• Enel North America now operates >10 GW of renewables capacity across the U.S. and Canada. The deal adds contracted cash flows in a market where operating portfolios are trading at a premium to development risk.
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Disclaimer: Not financial advice. This newsletter is for education + entertainment — not a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. Do your own research and make your own calls (and talk to a pro when it matters).